(ReclaimingAmerica.net) – With Memorial Day marking roughly six months before the upcoming election, the political landscape shows a clear reversal from last year, with former President Donald Trump currently leading Joe Biden in national polls.
Last year, Biden had a slight lead over Trump in several May polls:
- Morning Consult (May 20-22, 2023): Biden +2
- Quinnipiac University (May 18-22, 2023): Biden +2
- RMG Research (May 22-24, 2023): Biden +1
In contrast, polls from May 2024 show Trump ahead:
- HarrisX/Harris Poll (May 15-16, 2024): Trump +8
- Echelon Insights (May 13-16, 2024): Trump +5
- YouGov (May 19-21, 2024): Trump +1
Biden’s approval ratings have lingered below 40% since 2022, a concerning sign as presidents generally need at least a 50% approval rating to secure reelection.
Several significant events and issues have influenced the political climate since last May, which have potentially impacted voter sentiment.
These include multiple indictments against Trump, the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, the ongoing struggles with inflation under Biden’s administration and escalating issues at the southern U.S. border.
These developments seem to have negatively affected Biden’s standing or alternatively boosted Trump’s image among voters.
A notable shift in public perception is evident in a recent New York Times/Siena poll, which suggests an improvement in how voters view Trump’s presidency since he left office. Key findings include:
- 42% of respondents view Trump’s presidency as “mostly good for America,” compared to only 25% for Biden.
- An increase in voters who consider Trump a “safe choice,” up 11 points from 2016.
- Higher approval of Trump’s economic policies, up 10 points.
- An increase by 9 points in voters who believe Trump left the country in a better state.
The political landscape is poised for more developments with upcoming debates, party conventions, the end of Trump’s criminal trial and a possible trial for Hunter Biden on gun and tax charges.
An unforeseen “black swan” event could also dramatically alter the current dynamics as the election approaches.
Despite Trump’s current momentum, the dynamic nature of political campaigns indicates that the situation could still change significantly.
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